Policy & Regulation

‘Record’ growth needed to meet COP28 renewables goal

‘Record’ growth needed to meet COP28 renewables goal
Intersect Power's 224 MWac Athos III solar farm under construction in California. (Courtesy: Intersect Power)

To stay on course for the renewables target pledged at COP28, the world will now have to grow renewables capacity at a minimum 16.4% rate annually through 2030, a new report finds.

The Renewable Energy Statistics 2024 released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that despite renewables becoming the fastest-growing source of power, the world risks missing the tripling renewables target pledged at COP28.

The unprecedented 14% increase in renewables capacity during 2023 established a 10% compound annual growth rate (2017-2023). Combined with the constant decreasing additions of non-renewable capacity over the years, the trend sees renewable energy on its way to overtake fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.

However, if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the tripling target of 11.2 Terawatts (TW) in 2030 outlined by IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario will fall 1.5 TW short, missing the target by 13.5%. Furthermore, if the world keeps the historic annual growth rate of 10%, it will only accumulate 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, missing the target by almost one-third.

“Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent,” IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera said. “Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale. Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

“Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivize the private sector to invest,” COP28 president Dr Sultan Al Jaber said. “Additionally, this moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach. Above all, we must change the narrative that climate investment is a burden to it being an unprecedented opportunity for shared socio-economic development.”

In terms of power generation, IRENA said the latest data available for 2022 confirmed regional disparity in renewables deployment. Asia holds its position as the leader in global renewable power generation with 3,749 Terawatt hours (TWh), followed for the first time by North America (1,493 TWh). The biggest jump occurred in South America, where renewable power generation increased by nearly 12% to 940 TWh, due to a hydropower recovery and a greater role of solar energy.

With a modest growth of 3.5%, Africa increased its renewable power generation to 205 TWh in 2022. Acknowledging what it called an “urgent” need for support and finance, IRENA is advancing the Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa (APRA) initiative and is preparing an investment forum focused on APRA’s member countries later this year.

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