Hydropower

Global hydropower fleet grew to 1,412 GW, IHA reports

Global hydropower fleet grew to 1,412 GW, IHA reports
(photo courtesy IHA)

The global hydropower fleet has grown to 1,412 GW, but the five-year rolling average shows a downward trend, according to the World Hydropower Outlook published by the International Hydropower Association.

This annual publication tracks and directs the progress of hydropower development globally against net zero pathways. Drawing on exclusive new development insights from IHA’s global database, it features in-depth analysis of hydropower’s growth trajectory. The report highlights policy and financial investment challenges and examples of good progress.

Of this 1,412 GW number, conventional hydropower capacity made up 1,237 GW, growing by 7.2 GW, and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) 179 GW, growing by 6.5 GW. The conventional hydropower capacity addition was the lowest single year delivery this century, although the longer-term average is relatively stable at about 20 GW per year. PSH delivery has been trending upwards, although from a lower base.

IHA said a growth rate of just over 26 GW per year from now to 2030 is needed to stay on track with net zero targets. It is estimated that around double the amount of hydropower that is currently installed is needed for net zero scenarios by 2050. To double hydropower capacity by 2050, a cumulative investment of about US$3.7 trillion is required, or about US$130 billion annually. This equates to more than double the current level of funding. IHA’s assessment of the “big 100” pipeline of projects under development indicates that this acceleration is within reach for the early years of the next decade, but more action is needed over the longer term.

In 2023, there was a decrease in generation of 223 TWh from 2022’s figure, to 4,185 TWh. This reflects drought conditions in some significant hydropower markets, although IHA said it expects 2024 will rebound on this, with greater flows reported in Europe and China in the early part of the year.

The report also includes highlights by region.

In Europe, there is a mature fleet of hydropower stations, and to provide the flexibility required to support Europe’s ambitions for development of wind and solar, the emphasis is on modernization of these plus greenfield PSH development.

Similarly to Europe, in North and Central America there is little new greenfield conventional hydropower planned, with a strong emphasis on refurbishment and modernization. In Mexico, refurbishment of the existing fleet is expected to increase energy generation from hydropower and contribute to meeting the country’s greenhouse gas reduction goals.

South America is another region with a large installed base of hydropower assets, but more than 50% of the installed capacity in the region is over 30 years old. There is an opportunity to modernize these assets to increase their capability and climate resilience. And there are large projects in the pipeline, including the 7,550 MW Manseriche project in Peru, the 3,600 MW Zamora G8 project in Ecuador, and the 2,400 MW Ituango project in Colombia.

In Africa about 90% of the continent’s potential has yet to be tapped, but Africa installed 2 GW in 2023, a quarter of the global increase in conventional hydropower. Nigeria was the number two country in the world for new capacity, adding 740 MW mainly through the Zungeru project. Modernization is once again a principal theme, with much of the installed capacity ageing.

In South and Central Asia not many new projects were commissioned, but several are nearing completion, including major projects in Pakistan and Bhutan. Major PSH projects have been announced in India, and agreements on cross-border cooperation for electricity and water in the region bode well for future development.

Capacity additions in East Asia and Pacific were once again led by China, with 6.7 GW out of the region’s 8.5 GW of new capacity. Most of China’s new capacity, 6.2 GW, was PSH, and the country also dominated global additions of this technology. China’s wider ambition is to have as much as 80 GW in extra PSH capacity by 2027. Australia also has big plans for PSH, with a new 1.6 GW project proposed in the Hunter Valley.

IHA said that while there is increasing global interest in hydropower, this requires action from governments to be converted into new projects. Up to 2030, a relatively small increase over the recent trend build rate, from about 20 GW/year up to about 25 GW/year, is required for hydropower to make its expected contribution to the “tripling up” objective agreed at COP28.  After that, however, if net zero is to be achieved, delivery needs to more than double, to about 50 GW/year, and this rate needs to be sustained until 2050.

Originally published in Hydro Review.