Solar

Renewables to account for most new generation in 2024, EIA says

Renewables to account for most new generation in 2024, EIA says
(Credit: SOLARCYCLE)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects electricity generation will grow by about 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, and renewable energy sources — mainly solar — will supply most of that growth, according to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA expects electricity from solar, wind, and hydropower combined to account for 22% of total U.S. generation in 2024, increasing to 24% in 2025. Electricity from those three sources had made up 21% of U.S. generation in 2023.

EIA also forecasts solar will provide 41% more electricity in 2024 than in 2023. Generation from wind will grow 5% in 2024 in EIA’s May forecast, but if wind speeds differ significantly from expectations, wind generation could change. EIA expects 6% more hydropower generation in 2024 than in 2023, with the most significant growth in the Southeast.

“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

In January’s STEO, EIA forecasted that wind and solar energy will lead the growth in U.S. power generation for the next two years.

As a result of new solar projects coming online this year, the EIA forecasts that U.S. solar power generation will grow 75% from 163 billion kWh in 2023 to 286 billion kWh in 2025. The administration expects that wind power generation will grow 11% from 430 billion kWh in 2023 to 476 billion kWh in 2025.

In 2023, the U.S. electric power sector produced 4,017 billion kWh of electric power. Renewable sources—wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal—accounted for 22% of generation, or 874 billion kWh, last year, the EIA said. Annual renewable power generation surpassed nuclear generation for the first time in 2021 and coal generation for the first time in 2022.

In it’s April STEO, EIA said it expects hydropower generation to increase 6% and account for 250 billion kWh in 2024.

More hydropower is generated in the northwest and Rockies than any other region of the U.S. In 2023, 43% of all U.S. hydropower generation occurred in this region. However, last year’s hydropower output was the region’s lowest since at least 2010. Water supply, particularly in Washington and Oregon, was affected by a May heatwave that quickly melted the snowpack and reduced water supply for the rest of the year.

The full May STEO is available here.

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